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The Australian National University

Probabilistic forecasting of subnational population change in England

Date and time: 
Fri, 18th Aug 2017 - 3:00pm - 4:00pm
Arek Wisniowski

In this article, we extend the well-known multiregional population projection model developed by Andrei Rogers and colleagues to be fully probabilistic. The projections are based on time series forecasts of age- and sex-specific fertility, mortality, interregional migration, immigration and emigration for five regions in England. Bilinear and log-linear models are implemented to deal with the high dimensionality of the demographic components. Bayesian inference is then applied to produce probability distributions of all quantities of interest, including forecasts of population. These models are able to take into account the correlations across age, sex and regions in the demographic forecasting and thus provide a robust modelling platform for projecting subnational populations with measures of uncertainty.

Updated: 11 August 2017/ Responsible Officer:  Head, School of Demography / Page Contact:  Website Administrator